Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 1: Mapping method and data analysis
This pair of manuscripts (2025-6539 and 6540) constitute a significant step forward in the modelling of ballistic hazards from volcanic explosive activity at a volcano that has an unparalleled dataset (collated by these authors, building on previous work) and where there is considerable tourist activity particularly in the summer months (with hiking trails – for which this paper assesses the hazard – going to the active summit craters). There is therefore both considerable scientific interest in this paper (in the methods and moving the field forward) but also wider public interest.
Bevilacqua A., P. Landi, P. Del Carlo, A. Neri, M. Pompilio (2026).
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 26, 4479–4502. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4479-2026
Abstract
This study presents a novel method to map the areas affected by ballistic fallout generated by major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli as well as quantitative analyses of these areas. The mapping method is based on a simplified description of the affected areas by a circular proximal area and up to three circular sectors with variable radius and width, and uncertainty based on expert judgement. The dataset of maps includes a total of 67 events over ≈ 150 years, based on an extensive review of historical, observational, and monitoring data. Our findings highlight that: (1) 12 %–14 % of major explosions can exceed 1000 m, and 29 % of paroxysms extend over 2000 m of distance; (2) directional analysis of ballistic dispersal shows a predominant direction towards the East half-plane (87 %) for major explosions and towards the North half-plane (64 %) for paroxysms; (3) the average affected area was 6.9 × 104 m2 for major explosions and 3.6 × 105 m2 for paroxysms with a mean sector width of ≈ 90° for both categories. Notably, major explosions and paroxysms show a continuous distribution of maximum ballistic distance and area affected, suggesting the absence of a net separation between these two categories in terms of these products dispersal. Results highlight the limited influence of uncertainty in reconstructing the dispersal areas and stress the importance of ad hoc continuous observation of ballistic dispersal. By quantifying distances, directions, and areas affected by ballistic fallout, we provide the necessary data, together with their uncertainty, to produce probabilistic maps of ballistic hazard presented in the companion study.
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