The Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Balkans: Evidence from Golubarnica Cave in the Jakupica Massif (North Macedonia)

PUBBLICATO: 28 Settembre 2026

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology_Zanchetta et al. (2026) - Fig. 4 — The δ¹⁸O GO3 record (dark blue line) compared with δ¹⁸O records from lakes Prespa (orange line, Leng et al., 2010), and Ohrid (black line from Leng et al., 2010; light blue from Lacey et al., 2015), Lake Prespa lowstand (yellow box) and highstand (dark blue box) (van der Schriek and Giannakopoulos, 2017b) and Lake Dojran mean grainsize (green line) and total organic carbon (TOC, violet line) (after Francke et al., 2013). The dashed grey box represents the interval with the highest δ¹⁸O values in GO3 record. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Zanchetta G., I. Isola, H.-M. Hu, M. Bini, A. Columbu, R. Drysdale, M. Luppichini, S. Natali, E. Regattieri, C.-C. Shen, N. De Santis, J. Hellstrom, C. Pennos, P. Natale, A. Masi, B. Wagner, I. Milevski, M. Temovski, A. Izdebsk (2026).
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.113852

Abstract

Current warming and human activity have negatively impacted the hydrological budget of some of the larger lakes in the Balkan region. To explore potential climatic analogues for the recent climatic period we investigated a speleothem record from Golubarnica Cave in North Macedonia focusing on hydrological changes occurring during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA). The δ¹⁸O record and petrography identify a period of drier conditions between ca. 800 and 1250 CE, chronologically consistent with the MCA. This is broadly consistent with lake lowstands in lakes Prespa and Dojran obtained by geomorphological, sedimentological and diatom data, as well as increasing evaporation at lakes Prespa and Ohrid inferred by δ¹⁸O of endogenic lacustrine calcite. Taken together, these observations point to an extensive effect of the MCA-related hydrological anomaly over the Balkan region, which occurred during a period of persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results offer an important analog for comparing the regional response under the ongoing pressure of global warming.

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