A probabilistic assessment of tephra hazards inAntarctica reveals implications for polar logistics andSouthern Hemisphere aviation

PUBBLICATO: 14 Settembre 2026

**Figure 5** Contours represent the exceedance probability for ground loads of 1, 10, and 100 kg/m2. Panels are organized by erup-tive scenarios (rows) and mass-load thresholds (columns): (a-c) Plinian eruption at Mt. Melbourne; (d-f) Subplinian eruption at Mt. Melbourne; and (g-i) Ash venting at Mt. Rittmann. The 1, 10, and 100 kg/m2 thresholds correspond to approximately 0.1, 1, and 10 cm of tephra accumulation, respectively, assuming a mean deposit density of 900–1100 kg/m3. Probabilities are calculated based on the full range of seasonal wind variability. Note that for the Subplinian scenarios (d-f), the probabili-ties remain below 95% across all three thresholds; therefore, the 95% contour is not present in the corresponding legends.

Pardini F., · P. Del Carlo, · A. Di Roberto (2026).
Nature – Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-69650-9

Abstract

Antarctica hosts globally connected research infrastructure and critical aviation corridors, yet its volcanic haz-ard exposure remains largely unquantified. We present the first probabilistic hazard assessment for Mt. Mel-bourne and Mt. Rittmann in Northern Victoria Land. By integrating 20 years of high-resolution meteorological reanalysis with tephra transport simulations, we quantify impacts from airborne ash and ground fallout. We show that eruptions injecting tephra into the stratosphere can cause long-range dispersal, affecting tens of millions of square kilometers of Southern Hemisphere airspace and intersecting major intercontinental flight routes. Meanwhile, moderate tropospheric eruptions produce regional ash clouds capable of disrupting intrac-ontinental flights. Ground-level fallout, even millimetric accumulations, can severely impact critical infrastruc-ture, disrupting power generation, contaminating water, and reducing runway operability. Ultimately, this study emphasizes the necessity of integrating volcanic hazards into Antarctic contingency planning.

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