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Schematic illustration of the phenomenological model for paroxysm initiation. (a) Paroxysm initiation starts with the ascent of a LP magma batch from its storage region. LP magma ascent results in bubble (grey rounded symbols) nucleation, vesiculation and closed-system degassing. Arrival of the LP magma at shallow levels is preceded or…

Figure 5. Andesite-dacite mixing result for mesh 3: segregated layers of magmas displayed as contours of mass fraction at time t = 785 s. Garg D., P. Papale (2022). Rapp. Tec. INGV, 441: 128, https://doi.org/10.13127/rpt/441 Abstract GALES is a generalpurpose multiphysics finite element software developed at…

Sampling probability distributions of input parameters (collapsing volume and initial concentration of solid particles) in two sets of simulations performed for Campi Flegrei (see Fig. 10). Values in the color scales represent the sampling probability per cell, where each cell corresponds to one hundredth of the variation range of each…

Simulated evolution of composition, density and gas volume fractions in the Campi Flegrei magma chamber. Figure modified after Papale et al. (2017). Montagna C.P., P. Papale, A. Longo (2022).Chapter – Active Volcanoes of the World – book series (AVOLCAN), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37060-1_7 Abstract The Campi Flegrei caldera…

Probability maps (Cotopaxi volcano, red triangle) for different thickness accumulations in case the next eruption is sub-Plinian or Plinian. Uppercase letters are city names: A = Ambato, T = Tena, L = Latacunga, M = Machachi, B = Baeza, SD =Santo Domingo, Q = Quito, EC = El Chaco, C = Cayambe. The extent of the maps is the same as the…

Possible scheme for a Digital Twin of a volcanic system. Models and data concur to scenarios and forecasts. Models are continuously tested and refined, e.g., by adding more or better microphysics. Both data and models are accompanied by quality assessments and certification. Third parties access data and models, as well…