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Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measures

SettingTwofivefoldvalidationresultsforsubsetswithdifferentdominantgrainsizes(markedintheupper-leftcornerof each plot). The fivefold validation is done by taking one fifth of the total samples out for testing and the rest for training fivetimes, and samples are drawn for testing only once (no redraw of samples for testing). Every sample within each subset hasbeen used for testing once. After…

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Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption

Pardini F, S. Corradini, A. Costa, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, L. Merucci, A. Neri, D. Stelitano and Mattia de’ Michieli Vitturi (2020).Atmosphere, 11/4, 359; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040359. Abstract Accurate tracking and forecasting of ash dispersal in the atmosphere and quantification of its uncertainty are of fundamental importance for volcanic risk mitigation.

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A framework for validation and benchmarking of pyroclastic current models

Example of a hierarchy of validation tiers for pyroclastic currents. (A) Complete system (public domain photo courtesy of B. Voight, Penn State University). (B) Subsystem (public domain photo courtesy of Jonathan Stone). (C) Benchmark case (photo courtesy of G. Lube, Massey University, NZ). (D) Unit problem (picture modified after Hallworth…

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