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Enlargement of the NE quadrant of the island of Stromboli, illustrating the PDC invasion probability maps conditioned on the collapse of a random circular sector of 20° width, with respect to a maximum flow thickness threshold of 0.1 m. Basins 1-4 are labeled and shaded in yellow, Sites 1-3 are…

Probabilistic reconstruction of the areas invaded by the dense current of the 1930 PDC event, showing the likelihood of exceeding (a) 0.1 and (b) 1 m flow thickness threshold during the entire propagation. In panel (c) we show the mean value of maximum flow thickness, and in panel (d) the mean value of the maximum…

Fig. 9. a) Simplifield paleogeographic reconstruction of the eastern Mediterranean region during the middle Burdigalian, modified from Palcu et al. (2023). The figure illustrates the terminal stage of Neo-Tethys marine connectivity and the early collision between Arabia and Anatolia. Magmatism north of the Zagros suture is represented as localized…

Figure 3 Composite sequence tephrostratigraphy for the studied Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7 interval. The figure illustrates the stratigraphic positions of the studied tephra layers plotted against composite depth (m). High-resolution photographs display representative tephra layers from core C1-C2 (highlighted by red rectangles), illustrating their primary stratigraphic features and visual…

Table 1 Cognitive biases described in this contribution. Papale P. (2026).Frontiers in Earth Science, 14 pp. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2026.1755833 Open access Abstract Volcanic systems are governed by complex, non-linear dynamics that make deterministic forecasting impossible and require decisions to be made under substantial uncertainty. This contribution examines how…

Figure 3 Difference of DEM map over the entire monitoring period, showing the main topographic changes on the NW gully system from 2010 to 2022. The difference map of the DEMs is overlaid on the 2022 DSM hillshading. Consequently, the areas that appear gray on the map correspond to the…